Document Type

Presentation

Publication Date

11-7-2017

Description

Background: Workers in outdoor occupations are expected to be at high risk of increased morbidity and mortality, and diminished productivity, as a result of global warming in the 21st century. A previous modelling study of geographic variations in heat-related mortality risk in projected U.S. populations mid-century showed the states of Tennessee, Kentucky and North Carolina to be highly vulnerable. Methods: Under both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios of IPCC AR5, we evaluate the effect of future warming on estimated Wet Bulb Globe Thermometer (WBGT) temperatures using model-simulated future climate variables that were dynamically downscaled by a regional meteorology model for years 2049-2052. Select Appalachian counties in the three states that are presently dependent upon agricultural crop production are the focus of this analysis. Results: Using predicted WBGT temperatures, together with estimated work loads for hand harvesting of crops, alterations in work-rest routines under heat stress prevention guidelines are presented. Conclusions: Assumptions needed to translate these altered work-rest routines into measures of productivity and economic loss are discussed. Issues in extending the modelling to heat-related morbidity and mortality in outdoor worker populations are considered in terms of data gaps and major sources of uncertainty.

Location

Atlanta, GA

Copyright Statement

This document was published with permission by the American Public Health Association. It was originally available by the American Public Health Association Annual Meeting & Exposition.

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