The Effect of Selection Errors in Cost Estimation
Document Type
Article
Publication Date
1-1-1970
Description
This article quantifies the error induced by selecting the most desirable alternative from several under consideration. This selection effect was demonstrated under two different definitions of error. Model A error was associated with the difference in actual and estimated outcomes of an alternative. Model B error was associated with regret for not selecting the best alternative. The model A error was shown to be at a maximum when the proposed alternatives were nearly equal. This error also decreased as the coefficient of separation increased, and therefore shows that the effect of selection cannot be used to explain estimation deviations in many situations.
Citation Information
Lyle, B. F.; and Lyle, R. P.. 1970. The Effect of Selection Errors in Cost Estimation. AIIE Transactions. Vol.2(3). 221-226. https://doi.org/10.1080/05695557008974755 ISSN: 0569-5554