Authors' Affiliations

Emmanuel Afriyie, Department of Geosciences, East Tennessee State University, Johnson City, TN. Ingrid Luffman, Department of Geosciences, East Tennessee State University, Johnson City, TN

Location

Culp Center Ballroom

Start Date

4-25-2023 9:00 AM

End Date

4-25-2023 11:00 AM

Poster Number

47

Faculty Sponsor’s Department

Geosciences

Name of Project's Faculty Sponsor

Ingrid Luffman

Additional Sponsors

Andrew Joyner, William Clifford Tellefson

Classification of First Author

Graduate Student-Master’s

Competition Type

Competitive

Type

Poster Presentation

Project's Category

Floodplains

Abstract or Artist's Statement

Tennessee has a long history of floods that have caused property damage and loss of life. In the face of climate change and variability, it is imperative to look at trends to ascertain if there is a significant change in current flood regimes versus past flood events. Trend Analysis and Emerging Hotspot Analysis are useful geospatial tools that can effectively display changes over time and space. This study aims to evaluate the history of flood events in Tennessee to identify spatiotemporal trends and hot spots. A total of 902 flood events from 1996-2021 recorded in the National Oceanic Atmospheric Agency (NOAA) storm events database were analyzed using the number of events per county and the total damages per county at an annual time step. Two 26-year space-time cubes were built in ArcGIS Pro (version 3.0) for flood events and damages using an annual time step, with counties as the spatial unit. GeoGa software (version 1.20.0.22) was used to weight the distance between Tennessee counties to define a statistically significant neighborhood distance at 37km fixed distance. Trend Analysis and Emerging Hotspot Analysis was conducted to assess spatiotemporal trends in flooding events and damages (in dollars). Trend analysis revealed an increasing trend of flood events in eleven counties in middle Tennessee (Davidson, Wilson, Rutherford, Coffee, Marion, Putnam, Overton, Maury, Lawrence and Dickson counties) and Carter county in east Tennessee. Decreasing trends were observed in two counties (Lake and Bradley), all at a 90% or greater confidence level. Increasing trends in flood damages were identified in Cumberland, Putnam, Lawrence, Blount, Sullivan and Green counties, all in east and middle Tennessee. Decreasing trends were identified in Lake, Obion, Dyer, and Tipton, all in west Tennessee. East Tennessee was identified as a sporadic flooding hot spot (Hawkins, Green and Washington counties) with no significant hot spots in middle and west Tennessee. There were no hot spots nor cold spots in flood-related damages across Tennessee. The results indicate that flood events and related damages are decreasing in west Tennessee while parts of middle Tennessee and east Tennessee are experiencing increased flood events. This study is an important step to better understand spatiotemporal trends in flooding and flooding damages and will be useful in hazard mitigation planning in Tennessee at both state and county levels.

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Apr 25th, 9:00 AM Apr 25th, 11:00 AM

Spatiotemporal analysis of flooding in Tennessee counties: 1996-2021

Culp Center Ballroom

Tennessee has a long history of floods that have caused property damage and loss of life. In the face of climate change and variability, it is imperative to look at trends to ascertain if there is a significant change in current flood regimes versus past flood events. Trend Analysis and Emerging Hotspot Analysis are useful geospatial tools that can effectively display changes over time and space. This study aims to evaluate the history of flood events in Tennessee to identify spatiotemporal trends and hot spots. A total of 902 flood events from 1996-2021 recorded in the National Oceanic Atmospheric Agency (NOAA) storm events database were analyzed using the number of events per county and the total damages per county at an annual time step. Two 26-year space-time cubes were built in ArcGIS Pro (version 3.0) for flood events and damages using an annual time step, with counties as the spatial unit. GeoGa software (version 1.20.0.22) was used to weight the distance between Tennessee counties to define a statistically significant neighborhood distance at 37km fixed distance. Trend Analysis and Emerging Hotspot Analysis was conducted to assess spatiotemporal trends in flooding events and damages (in dollars). Trend analysis revealed an increasing trend of flood events in eleven counties in middle Tennessee (Davidson, Wilson, Rutherford, Coffee, Marion, Putnam, Overton, Maury, Lawrence and Dickson counties) and Carter county in east Tennessee. Decreasing trends were observed in two counties (Lake and Bradley), all at a 90% or greater confidence level. Increasing trends in flood damages were identified in Cumberland, Putnam, Lawrence, Blount, Sullivan and Green counties, all in east and middle Tennessee. Decreasing trends were identified in Lake, Obion, Dyer, and Tipton, all in west Tennessee. East Tennessee was identified as a sporadic flooding hot spot (Hawkins, Green and Washington counties) with no significant hot spots in middle and west Tennessee. There were no hot spots nor cold spots in flood-related damages across Tennessee. The results indicate that flood events and related damages are decreasing in west Tennessee while parts of middle Tennessee and east Tennessee are experiencing increased flood events. This study is an important step to better understand spatiotemporal trends in flooding and flooding damages and will be useful in hazard mitigation planning in Tennessee at both state and county levels.