Degree Name
EdD (Doctor of Education)
Program
Educational Leadership
Date of Award
8-2026
Committee Chair or Co-Chairs
Pamela Scott
Committee Members
Virginia Foley, Don Good
Abstract
Reading proficiency by the end of third grade is a critical milestone as students transition from learning to read to using reading as a tool for learning. In Tennessee, this proficiency is especially significant because promotion and retention decisions are linked to student performance on the Tennessee Comprehensive Assessment Program (TCAP) ELA assessment. This quantitative, longitudinal study examined the extent to which kindergarten readiness, operationalized as kindergarten AIMSweb ELA Composite scores, predicts third-grade reading proficiency status in one rural, high-poverty school district. Using archival student-level data, this study analyzed kindergarten AIMSweb ELA Composite scores and third-grade TCAP ELA proficiency. Logistic regression determined the predictive likelihood of proficiency based on these early scores. These findings help stakeholders determine if AIMSweb scores provide useful early indicators of reading outcomes, potentially informing intervention placement, resource allocation, and literacy decision-making in rural settings. The results indicated that kindergarten AIMSweb ELA Composite scores were statistically significantly associated with and predictive of third-grade TCAP ELA proficiency. Pearson correlation analysis showed a moderate positive relationship, r = .372, p < .001. Binary logistic regression indicated that kindergarten AIMSweb ELA Composite scores significantly predicted 5 third-grade proficiency, χ²(1) = 43.149, p < .001, with each one-point increase in scores increasing the odds of proficiency by approximately 3.2%. The model explained 20.1% of the variation in proficiency status, based on Nagelkerke R² = .201, and correctly classified 77.3% of students overall. The model was stronger in identifying students who did not reach proficiency than students who did. Subgroup analyses showed that gender differences in AIMSweb scores were not statistically significant and that the AIMSweb-to-TCAP relationship was nearly identical for female and male students. Pre-Kindergarten participation did not add statistically significant predictive value beyond AIMSweb scores. English Learner findings were limited by the very small subgroup size, and the subgroup correlation could not be computed. Economically disadvantaged status and special education status were associated with statistically significant differences in kindergarten AIMSweb scores; however, the economically disadvantaged subgroup correlation was positive but not statistically significant, and AIMSweb scores remained significantly related to TCAP proficiency for students with and without special education services.
Document Type
Dissertation - unrestricted
Recommended Citation
Gentry, Christi J., "Kindergarten AIMSweb ELA Composite as a Predictor of Third-Grade Reading Proficiency in a Rural, High-Poverty School District" (2026). Electronic Theses and Dissertations. Paper 4743. https://dc.etsu.edu/etd/4743
Copyright
Copyright by the author.
