Degree Name
MS (Master of Science)
Program
Geosciences
Date of Award
8-2025
Committee Chair or Co-Chairs
Ingrid Luffman
Committee Members
Andrew T. Joyner, Eileen Ernenwein
Abstract
The southeastern United States, including the Tri-Cities, Tennessee, has undergone notable changes in Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) over the past two decades. This study aims to examine spatiotemporal patterns of LULC change and forecast LULC within the Tri-Cities Urban Growth Boundary. The National Land Cover Database LULC data reveals a substantial transition of vegetated land to developed land between 2001 and 2021. Kernel Density Estimation identifies hotspots at city centers for transitioned low-to-high and medium-to-high intensity developed land. Transitioned vegetation to developed land hotspots captures urban sprawl in peripheral areas. The Random Forest model achieved an accuracy of 95% in forecasting LULC and exhibited notable growth in developed land, as well as significant declines in deciduous forest areas. LULC predictions reveal a clear trend of increasing urban development by replacing vegetated land, increasing impervious surfaces, raising concerns about flooding risks, water quality, and heat hazards in Tri-Cities, Tennessee.
Document Type
Thesis - embargo
Recommended Citation
Ishan, Rezaul Bari, "Assessing Spatiotemporal Patterns of Urban Expansion and Forecasting Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) Change in Tri-Cities, Tennessee" (2025). Electronic Theses and Dissertations. Paper 4573. https://dc.etsu.edu/etd/4573
Copyright
Copyright by the authors.
