Degree Name
MS (Master of Science)
Program
Geosciences
Date of Award
12-2022
Committee Chair or Co-Chairs
T. Andrew Joyner
Committee Members
Eileen G. Ernenwein, William Tollefson
Abstract
To increase capacity for monitoring and surveillance of tick-borne diseases, publicly available tick distribution and climate change datasets are required to create accurate predictive distribution models. It is difficult, however, to assess model accuracy and utility when using incomplete datasets. The more recent development of comprehensive tick databases for Europe and availability of climate change scenarios from multiple IPCC Assessment Reports allows for improved modeling efforts. Multiple tick datasets were combined and three climate change projections were compared by predicting current and future distributions of Ixodes ricinus ticks in Europe using the MaxEnt species distribution model. Overall, much of Europe contains suitable habitat for the Ixodes ricinus tick, both now and under future climate change projections. Contraction of habitable areas is predicted to occur at lower latitudes and altitudes, while expansion is predicted to occur at higher altitudes in mountainous regions and the higher latitudes, primarily in northern Scandinavia.
Document Type
Thesis - embargo
Recommended Citation
Jones, Steven, "Species Data and Vector Modeling: Evaluating Datasets for Improved Models of Ixodes ricinus Tick Distribution in Europe Under a Changing Climate" (2022). Electronic Theses and Dissertations. Paper 4139. https://dc.etsu.edu/etd/4139
Copyright
Copyright by the authors.
Included in
Disease Modeling Commons, Environmental Public Health Commons, Epidemiology Commons, Geographic Information Sciences Commons, Parasitic Diseases Commons, Physical and Environmental Geography Commons, Spatial Science Commons, Veterinary Preventive Medicine, Epidemiology, and Public Health Commons