“It’s a Conspiracy!” Self-Reported Conspiracy Theory Beliefs, Dichotomous Thinking, and Political Extremism Following Ostracism
Abstract
The present American society appears fraught with strife, especially pertaining to a seemingly mass influx of conspiracy theories and political extremism. In observing possible predictors of this conflict, we found that prior research indicates that ostracism may be a possible common cause, with ostracism leading to greater conspiracy theory belief and openness to joining extreme groups. This research, therefore, sought to investigate whether ostracism predicts greater self-reported conspiracy theory belief, conspiracy mentality, dichotomous thinking, and political extremism. Study one (S1) simulated randomly assigned ostracism and inclusion using Cyberball with in-person, undergraduate participants who then completed validated measures on fundamental need threat (i.e., belonging, self-esteem, control, meaningful existence), mood, self-uncertainty, state anxiety, and dependent variables. While the ostracism manipulation was effective, with ostracized participants reporting greater threat to fundamental needs, greater uncertainty, and more negative mood, results indicate no significant differences between ostracized and included participants for dependent variables. As this deviates from the current literature and our hypothesis, we designed a replication study that investigated these results further and the impact of possible covariates. Study two (S2), an online study, was similar in methodology to S1 but utilized Ostracism Online to simulate randomly assigned ostracism/inclusion and assessed the possible covariates of need to belong, rejection sensitivity, loneliness, childhood emotional trauma, and paranoia. Similar to S1, S2 had an effective ostracism manipulation with ostracized participants reporting greater threat to fundamental needs and more negative mood. However, like S1, S2 found no significant differences between ostracized and included participants on main dependent variables, while controlling for covariates only significantly changed the impact on uncertainty. These results are not consistent with prior research or our present hypothesis. However, the similarity of the two study results indicate that ostracism alone may not predict self-reported conspiracy belief, conspiracy mentality, dichotomous thinking, or political extremism.
Start Time
15-4-2026 9:00 AM
End Time
16-4-2026 10:00 AM
Room Number
271
Presentation Type
Oral Presentation
Presentation Subtype
UG Orals
Presentation Category
Social Sciences
Student Type
Undergraduate
Faculty Mentor
Ginette Blackhart
“It’s a Conspiracy!” Self-Reported Conspiracy Theory Beliefs, Dichotomous Thinking, and Political Extremism Following Ostracism
271
The present American society appears fraught with strife, especially pertaining to a seemingly mass influx of conspiracy theories and political extremism. In observing possible predictors of this conflict, we found that prior research indicates that ostracism may be a possible common cause, with ostracism leading to greater conspiracy theory belief and openness to joining extreme groups. This research, therefore, sought to investigate whether ostracism predicts greater self-reported conspiracy theory belief, conspiracy mentality, dichotomous thinking, and political extremism. Study one (S1) simulated randomly assigned ostracism and inclusion using Cyberball with in-person, undergraduate participants who then completed validated measures on fundamental need threat (i.e., belonging, self-esteem, control, meaningful existence), mood, self-uncertainty, state anxiety, and dependent variables. While the ostracism manipulation was effective, with ostracized participants reporting greater threat to fundamental needs, greater uncertainty, and more negative mood, results indicate no significant differences between ostracized and included participants for dependent variables. As this deviates from the current literature and our hypothesis, we designed a replication study that investigated these results further and the impact of possible covariates. Study two (S2), an online study, was similar in methodology to S1 but utilized Ostracism Online to simulate randomly assigned ostracism/inclusion and assessed the possible covariates of need to belong, rejection sensitivity, loneliness, childhood emotional trauma, and paranoia. Similar to S1, S2 had an effective ostracism manipulation with ostracized participants reporting greater threat to fundamental needs and more negative mood. However, like S1, S2 found no significant differences between ostracized and included participants on main dependent variables, while controlling for covariates only significantly changed the impact on uncertainty. These results are not consistent with prior research or our present hypothesis. However, the similarity of the two study results indicate that ostracism alone may not predict self-reported conspiracy belief, conspiracy mentality, dichotomous thinking, or political extremism.
