Chronic Absenteeism’s Effect on Learning in a Rural Elementary School
Abstract
Introduction: Student attendance is often treated as a straightforward driver of academic success, and chronic absenteeism (missing at least 10% of the school year) is widely flagged as a warning sign for lower achievement. This emphasis has increased after COVID-19 disruptions that shifted attendance patterns and learning outcomes. Particularly in rural communities, access barriers, family stressors, and intermittent closures may also complicate the attendance achievement relationship. This project uses Church Hill Elementary data to examine how attendance relates to CASE and TCAP performance over multiple years to inform how schools might interpret attendance metrics and prioritize supportive intervention. Methods: We analyzed grade-level attendance and ELA and math scores from CASE benchmarks and TCAP for grades 3 and 4 across the 2021 through 2025 school years, using bivariate correlations to characterize associations between attendance and achievement over time. Results: Attendance declined from 86% to 81% at Church Hill Elementary and from 91% to 78% in the district over the period shown. CASE correlations were grade 3 (rᵐ = −0.52, rᵉ = 0.83) and grade 4 (rᵐ = −0.77, rᵉ = −0.95). TCAP correlations were grade 3 (rᵐ = −0.20, rᵉ = 0.38) and grade 4 (rᵐ = −0.88, rᵉ = −0.99). Discussion: Prior work links chronic absenteeism to lower performance, but Church Hill Elementary showed inconsistent correlations between attendance and CASE and TCAP scores. This may reflect limited years of data and use of grade-level averages, which reduce sensitivity to student-level effects. Social-emotional risk and disruptions from COVID-19 and hurricane closures may also affect achievement independent of attendance. These findings suggest attendance and test metrics alone miss key context in high-adversity rural settings, developing broader supports for students and student-level longitudinal research.
Start Time
15-4-2026 1:30 PM
End Time
15-4-2026 4:30 PM
Room Number
Culp Ballroom 316
Poster Number
22
Presentation Type
Poster
Student Type
Graduate and Professional Degree Students, Residents, Fellows
Faculty Mentor
Laura Trull
Chronic Absenteeism’s Effect on Learning in a Rural Elementary School
Culp Ballroom 316
Introduction: Student attendance is often treated as a straightforward driver of academic success, and chronic absenteeism (missing at least 10% of the school year) is widely flagged as a warning sign for lower achievement. This emphasis has increased after COVID-19 disruptions that shifted attendance patterns and learning outcomes. Particularly in rural communities, access barriers, family stressors, and intermittent closures may also complicate the attendance achievement relationship. This project uses Church Hill Elementary data to examine how attendance relates to CASE and TCAP performance over multiple years to inform how schools might interpret attendance metrics and prioritize supportive intervention. Methods: We analyzed grade-level attendance and ELA and math scores from CASE benchmarks and TCAP for grades 3 and 4 across the 2021 through 2025 school years, using bivariate correlations to characterize associations between attendance and achievement over time. Results: Attendance declined from 86% to 81% at Church Hill Elementary and from 91% to 78% in the district over the period shown. CASE correlations were grade 3 (rᵐ = −0.52, rᵉ = 0.83) and grade 4 (rᵐ = −0.77, rᵉ = −0.95). TCAP correlations were grade 3 (rᵐ = −0.20, rᵉ = 0.38) and grade 4 (rᵐ = −0.88, rᵉ = −0.99). Discussion: Prior work links chronic absenteeism to lower performance, but Church Hill Elementary showed inconsistent correlations between attendance and CASE and TCAP scores. This may reflect limited years of data and use of grade-level averages, which reduce sensitivity to student-level effects. Social-emotional risk and disruptions from COVID-19 and hurricane closures may also affect achievement independent of attendance. These findings suggest attendance and test metrics alone miss key context in high-adversity rural settings, developing broader supports for students and student-level longitudinal research.
