Project Title

The Impact of Subsidence on Industrial Complexes in the Lower Mississippi River Industrial Corridor

Authors' Affiliations

Joseph B. Harris, Department of Geography & Anthropology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA. T. Andrew Joyner, Department of Geosciences, East Tennessee State University, Johnson City, TN. Robert V. Rohli, Department of Oceanography & Coastal Sciences, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA.

Location

RIPSHIN MTN. ROOM 130

Start Date

4-4-2018 2:20 PM

End Date

4-4-2018 2:35 PM

Name of Project's Faculty Sponsor

Dr. T. Andrew Joyner

Faculty Sponsor's Department

Department of Geosciences

Type

Oral Presentation

Classification of First Author

Graduate Student-Doctoral

Project's Category

Natural Sciences

Abstract Text

Spatial interpolation methods were analyzed to determine the best fit for subsidence rates and to create a predictive surface for the lower Mississippi River Industrial corridor (LMRIC). Empirical Bayesian kriging, ordinary kriging, universal kriging, and Inverse Distance Weighted interpolation methods were applied to the 2004 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) published Technical Report #50 dataset and cross validation methods were utilized to determine the accuracy of each method. The mean error and root mean square error were calculated for each interpolation method, then used to detect bias and compare the predicted value with the actual observation value. Cross-validation estimates are comparable for each method statistically and visually; however, the results indicate the empirical Bayesian kriging interpolation method is the most accurate of the methods using the lowest root mean square scores. Digital elevation models for the years 2025, 2050, and 2075 were developed based on the predictive surface of subsidence rates using the results from the empirical Bayesian kriging interpolation method. Results indicate that by 2025, 30.9% of landmass in the LMRIC will be below sea level, with 41.9% below sea level by 2050, and 53.5% by 2075. Subsidence rates in the LMRIC range from approximately 28 mm to 2 mm per year. Eighteen of the 153 industrial complexes located in the LMRIC are estimated to be below sea level by the year 2075.

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Apr 4th, 2:20 PM Apr 4th, 2:35 PM

The Impact of Subsidence on Industrial Complexes in the Lower Mississippi River Industrial Corridor

RIPSHIN MTN. ROOM 130

Spatial interpolation methods were analyzed to determine the best fit for subsidence rates and to create a predictive surface for the lower Mississippi River Industrial corridor (LMRIC). Empirical Bayesian kriging, ordinary kriging, universal kriging, and Inverse Distance Weighted interpolation methods were applied to the 2004 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) published Technical Report #50 dataset and cross validation methods were utilized to determine the accuracy of each method. The mean error and root mean square error were calculated for each interpolation method, then used to detect bias and compare the predicted value with the actual observation value. Cross-validation estimates are comparable for each method statistically and visually; however, the results indicate the empirical Bayesian kriging interpolation method is the most accurate of the methods using the lowest root mean square scores. Digital elevation models for the years 2025, 2050, and 2075 were developed based on the predictive surface of subsidence rates using the results from the empirical Bayesian kriging interpolation method. Results indicate that by 2025, 30.9% of landmass in the LMRIC will be below sea level, with 41.9% below sea level by 2050, and 53.5% by 2075. Subsidence rates in the LMRIC range from approximately 28 mm to 2 mm per year. Eighteen of the 153 industrial complexes located in the LMRIC are estimated to be below sea level by the year 2075.