Degree Name
EdD (Doctor of Education)
Program
Educational Leadership
Date of Award
8-2026
Committee Chair or Co-Chairs
Virginia Foley
Committee Members
John Boyd, Paul Garton
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic caused significant and uneven learning loss in Tennessee public high schools. The statewide ACT composite average fell from 20.2 in 2019 to 19.1 in 2021. By 2024-2025, it recovered only to 19.3. During the same period, Tennessee received approximately $3.86 billion in additional federal funds and $1.15 billion in new state funding. This ex post facto quantitative study examined whether prepandemic achievement levels predicted learning loss severity and recovery patterns of a census of 322 Tennessee public high schools from 2018-2019 through 2024-2025.
The study used two theoretical frameworks. Baumol's cost disease theory predicted that structural productivity constraints would limit achievement gains regardless of funding level. Matthew Effect theory predicted that schools with stronger prepandemic organizational capacity would demonstrate greater resilience. Together, these frameworks formed a compound disadvantage hypothesis.
A multiple linear regression model showed evidence that a school’s prepandemic ACT composite score and the percentage of economically disadvantaged students were both statistically significant positive predictors of learning loss. To gauge recovery from pandemic disruption, two regression models were estimated. Model A found that recovery magnitude was predicted primarily by school size. Model B found that net change from baseline was predicted by prepandemic ACT composite score, school size, and percentage of economically disadvantaged students. That model also indicated that higher-performing schools were less likely to return to their prepandemic baseline. A simple linear regression did not reveal evidence of schools receiving the most funding having the highest costs per outcome unit. However, 51 schools that showed no recovery were excluded from the sample. This removed some evidence of Baumol’s cost disease.
The compound disadvantage hypothesis received partial support. Economic disadvantage predicted both greater vulnerability to learning loss and a less complete recovery, consistent with Matthew Effect theory. Evidence of Baumol’s cost disease was not confirmed at the school level. The literature and findings suggest schools serving a higher percentage of economically disadvantaged students should be considered for differentiated support to achieve recovery trajectories compared to better-resourced schools.
Document Type
Dissertation - unrestricted
Recommended Citation
Boyd, Wilson, "Disruption, Recovery, and Divergence: How Prepandemic Achievement Levels Shaped Learning Loss, Recovery, and Spending Efficiency in Tennessee Public High Schools" (2026). Electronic Theses and Dissertations. Paper 4728. https://dc.etsu.edu/etd/4728
Copyright
Copyright by the author.
Included in
Educational Assessment, Evaluation, and Research Commons, Educational Leadership Commons, Education Economics Commons, Elementary and Middle and Secondary Education Administration Commons, Secondary Education Commons
