Climate Change Impacts: Heat-Related Mortality Projections and Population Adaptive Responses in United States

Document Type


Publication Date



We miss summer time during winter especially when it snows heavily resulting in cancelation of classes but we turn to ignore high temperature and its associated health impacts during summer. Several studies have shown that high temperatures during summer are associated with morbidity and mortality in many cities in the United States over the past decade. Gradual increase in temperature over the past years raises public health concerns about the impacts of heat on human health in future and the role of adaptation. Our study aimed at assessing future heat-related mortality due to climate change in the United States. We hypothesized that incidence of premature death will increase with future temperature rise and population adaptation will reduce the mortality rate. We reviewed research articles on temperature-related premature death. The literature search was limited to studies conducted in United States and seven studies which demonstrated positive association between temperature and premature death were selected for this study. We predicted future high temperature-related mortality using BenMap benefit model designed to estimate 2015 Appalachian Student Research Forum Page 111 air pollution impacts on public health. Based on the selected studies, BenMap model projected 2020-2050 temperature scenario using modeled daily mean apparent temperature to estimate future heat-related mortality. Our results showed that high temperatures would cause an increase in heat-related mortality and adaptation would minimize the effects of climate change as people get used to high temperatures. The outcome of our study confirms the positive association between high temperature and mortality which emphasizes the need for policy makers to take appropriate actions such as greenhouse gas emission reduction to protect public health.


Johnson City, TN

This document is currently not available here.