Degree Name

MS (Master of Science)

Program

Geosciences

Date of Award

12-2022

Committee Chair or Co-Chairs

T. Andrew Joyner

Committee Members

Eileen G. Ernenwein, William Tollefson

Abstract

To increase capacity for monitoring and surveillance of tick-borne diseases, publicly available tick distribution and climate change datasets are required to create accurate predictive distribution models. It is difficult, however, to assess model accuracy and utility when using incomplete datasets.  The more recent development of comprehensive tick databases for Europe and availability of climate change scenarios from multiple IPCC Assessment Reports allows for improved modeling efforts. Multiple tick datasets were combined and three climate change projections were compared by predicting current and future distributions of Ixodes ricinus ticks in Europe using the MaxEnt species distribution model. Overall, much of Europe contains suitable habitat for the Ixodes ricinus tick, both now and under future climate change projections.  Contraction of habitable areas is predicted to occur at lower latitudes and altitudes, while expansion is predicted to occur at higher altitudes in mountainous regions and the higher latitudes, primarily in northern Scandinavia.

Document Type

Thesis - embargo

Copyright

Copyright by the authors.

Available for download on Monday, January 15, 2024

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