A Thought Experiment to Evaluate the Importance of Economic Development on Improving Health in Tennessee

Abstract

The Appalachian Regional Commission (ARC) has developed a system to rank all counties based on three economic parameters: three-year average unemployment rate; per capita market income; and poverty rate. Based on these data, ARC ranks counties as attainment, competitive, transitional, at-risk, or distressed. In 2024, Tennessee had 1 attainment, 7 competitive, 52 transitional, 27 at-risk, and 8 distressed counties. In an effort to understand the role that economics plays in health; we created a thought experiment asking the question: “What would happen to the overall health of the state of Tennessee if the top five counties in each group were moved up one category?” For example, this would mean the top 5 transitional counties would be moved up to the competitive group and assume the health metrics of the competitive group. Under this scenario, for Tennessee overall, life expectancy and the percentage of adults with some college would increase, while the percentages of unemployment, children in poverty, adults smoking, and adults with obesity would all decrease. Additionally, the primary care physician ratio, cancer death rate, heart disease death rate, and drug overdose death rate all decreased significantly. This thought experiment reinforces our understanding of the importance of economic development in improving health status in Tennessee.

Start Time

16-4-2025 1:30 PM

End Time

16-4-2025 4:00 PM

Presentation Type

Poster

Presentation Category

Health

Student Type

Graduate Student - Masters

Faculty Mentor

Randy Wykoff

Faculty Department

Public Health

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Apr 16th, 1:30 PM Apr 16th, 4:00 PM

A Thought Experiment to Evaluate the Importance of Economic Development on Improving Health in Tennessee

The Appalachian Regional Commission (ARC) has developed a system to rank all counties based on three economic parameters: three-year average unemployment rate; per capita market income; and poverty rate. Based on these data, ARC ranks counties as attainment, competitive, transitional, at-risk, or distressed. In 2024, Tennessee had 1 attainment, 7 competitive, 52 transitional, 27 at-risk, and 8 distressed counties. In an effort to understand the role that economics plays in health; we created a thought experiment asking the question: “What would happen to the overall health of the state of Tennessee if the top five counties in each group were moved up one category?” For example, this would mean the top 5 transitional counties would be moved up to the competitive group and assume the health metrics of the competitive group. Under this scenario, for Tennessee overall, life expectancy and the percentage of adults with some college would increase, while the percentages of unemployment, children in poverty, adults smoking, and adults with obesity would all decrease. Additionally, the primary care physician ratio, cancer death rate, heart disease death rate, and drug overdose death rate all decreased significantly. This thought experiment reinforces our understanding of the importance of economic development in improving health status in Tennessee.